Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.
The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public.
For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%.
Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% – almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.
Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.
'Nuff Said….. pic.twitter.com/0nZsydNHNb
— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) May 22, 2020
Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.
More importantly, as I mentioned before, the overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are so lopsided. Given that at least half of the deaths were in nursing homes, a back-of-the-envelope estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1% or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with comorbidities.
The CDC estimates the death rate from COVID-19 for those under 50 is 1 in 5,000 for those with symptoms, which would be 1 in 6,725 overall, but again, almost all those who die have specific comorbidities or underlying conditions. Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.
To put this in perspective, one Twitter commentator juxtaposed the age-separated infection fatality rates in Spain to the average yearly probability of dying of anything for the same age groups, based on data from the Social Security Administration. He used Spain because we don’t have a detailed infection fatality rate estimate for each age group from any survey in the U.S. However, we know that Spain fared worse than almost every other country. This data is actually working with a top-line IFR of 1%, roughly four times what the CDC estimates for the U.S., so if anything, the corresponding numbers for the U.S. will be lower.
Being alive means there is a risk that you will die in every year of your life. Normally we don't think about this because the probability is very small.
It turns out that even if you are infected with COVID, your increased risk to die vs normal is not very large at all. pic.twitter.com/lrQnTuHYRS
— Gummi Bear (@gummibear737) May 20, 2020
As you can see, even in Spain, the death rates from COVID-19 for younger people are very low and are well below the annual death rate for any age group in a given year. For children, despite their young age, they are 10-30 times more likely to die from other causes in any given year.
While obviously yearly death rates factor in myriad of causes of death and COVID-19 is just one virus, it still provides much-needed perspective to a public policy response that is completely divorced from the risk for all but the oldest and sickest people in the country.
Also, keep in mind, these numbers represent your chance of dying once you have already contracted the virus, aka the infection fatality rate. Once you couple the chance of contracting the virus in the first place together with the chance of dying from it, many younger people have a higher chance of dying from a lightning strike.
Four infectious disease doctors in Canada estimate that the individual rate of death from COVID-19 for people under 65 years of age is six per million people, or 0.0006 per cent – 1 in 166,666, which is “roughly equivalent to the risk of dying from a motor vehicle accident during the same time period.” These numbers are for Canada, which did have fewer deaths per capita than the U.S.; however, if you take New York City and its surrounding counties out of the equation, the two countries are pretty much the same. Also, remember, so much of the death is associated with the suicidal political decisions of certain states and countries to place COVID-19 patients in nursing homes. An astounding 62 percent of all COVID-19 deaths were in the six states confirmed to have done this, even though they only compose 18 percent of the national population.
We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?
Thanks to the Liberals and the mainstream media we don’t get the true news. It’s all about promoting their agenda which is getting President Trump out of office. If truth be known how many people actually died from Coronavirus who were treated and still died.
They are just trying to ruin america so they can have illegals to control they didn’t know half of the people would give up their freedom so now they want to see how far they can go before they get pushed back if it doesn’t happen soon it will be to late
Half of this country are minions that would follow democrats off of cliff to destroy america.
Tired of the lying fake news I pray people would stop listening to them and think for themselves
What people do not understand, including the CDC ,is that parasites do not exist because they kill their hosts but rather because they are reproductively successful.. The predictions by the CDC ,originally, were based on erroneous data and their models were therefore false. Statisticians have a saying ” garbage in garbage out ” because so many infected people were asymptomatic the actual number of infected hosts was not recognized. This made the mortality rate appear much higher than it actually was. Rushing to publish their data the CDC made the problem appear much worse that it has turned out to be. Shutting down the working age classes has been the biggest mistake and has caused more economic damage than the virus itself.
Common sense has gone out the window
Dr Fauci knew this was false encore he went to Trump. He is in politically with the demo. The democrats needed to sink his economy and record low unemployment. They want to destroy Trump. It’s a shame that their hatred for him caused them to destroy America. They should all be locked up. Fauci still tried to keep up locked up until after elections. That’s what this is about. Mail in voting so they can cheat. They know that all democrats are going to be voted out because of what they’ve been doing, even before the virus. They are evil. Soros and Gates. They want us to be like China. This is why I feel that the democrats alongside China purposely set this virus free. Our bodies will naturally fight this off but they made it seem like everyone was going to die for control. This is a dry run and we need to wake up!
The overall death rate in the United States from ALL causes last year without the China virus was about 0.85%. So, adding in the rate from the China virus, it raises the rate by 0.026% which means you can expect the overall mortality rate in the US this year to end up at 0.876%, not much more risk of death than last year. Those of us in our mid 70s just need to wear a mask in public and be a little more careful than others.
I am in your age group and i only wear a mask where i am told to and only if i cannot avoid the store or business. I have written off a lot of the other places where there is absolutely no reason to wear a mask. If you think a paper mask — or for that matter, a piece of cotton wrapped across your face — can stop a microbe that causes a virus, you probably believe that your underwear can stop a fart. There is no doubt that the virus is real but the people who say “follow the science” are incredibly stupid or gullible. The CDC guidelines — not laws for which you can be thrown in jail like some people have been — have been the same since day one: wash your hands regularly, don’t touch your face with your hands, stay home if you are sick, stay away from sick people and call a doctor BEFORE you go to a clinic. Where in hell’s name did you see “wear a mask” in any of that?
I think all of these Comments are 100% TRUE and hitting the nail right on the HEAD. I have said this all along. This Pandemic just came on way to fast and spread way to far to fast, we were all going by the numbers we were being handed. The public that was tested positive for it were the people that had the Vaccine in them and already had the Corona in them that’s why they tested positive with no symptoms. I believe this Pandemic was planned a while ago to ;lower the population and by giving the vaccine to the public with the chip in it to track our DNA would give these Fanatics (NOT SAYING ANY NAMES) the chance and win the Global Controlling but, this will not happen because, we are catching on to their plans and we will put a stop to them and the Fanatics will pay for their CRIMES in killing all those innocent men, women and children, lets get on with the INVESTIGATIOPN don’t wait any longer to many people have died for nothing but, GREED and CONTROL of our lives. Have a wonderful day and take care every one
I WISH THE MSM WOULD TELL US THE TRUTH BUT THEY ARE SO BUSY TRYING TO REMOVE THE BEST POTUS EVER TO IMPLIMENT THEIR COMMUNIST AGENDA!
the media are what have kept this country free because we have freedom of speech.
None of these words matter unless you vote in November. VOTE! Trump 2020
You guys are are idiots and easy targets for lies. Do some research.
“Cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates since March 1, 2020, are updated weekly. The overall cumulative hospitalization rate is 67.9 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people aged 65 years and older (214.4 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (105.9 per 100,000).”
“Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 18.5% during week 19 to 12.0% during week 20 but remained above baseline. This is the fourth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC, but this percentage may change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.
You have me confused when you talk about week 19 and week 20. Which timetable are you referencing? 20 weeks is clearly more than 4 months and we are still only in the 5 month of the year? Also, you talk about “more death certificates” but you failed to mention Dr. Birx’ admission that CDC told hospitals, morticians and records people to put CoVid-19 as COD on all death certidicates when someone is tested positive — whether the person died WITH or FROM the virus. There is a big difference between those two words.
We all migrated in this country because the Americans abide by the laws , and have freedom of speech. But if Democrats think that letting the illegals come in without following the laws in place or supporting one side no matter how wrong they are those are the people who will take down this country. No country is respecting America now because of the way the president is being stone walled on a daily basis. It’s absurd!